This poses the risk of degradation of the Southern Ocean observation network

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santos
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Joined: Sat Apr 15, 2023 4:54 am

This poses the risk of degradation of the Southern Ocean observation network

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If it is not yet possible to predict when an El Nino event will take place, when it started, it is now possible, by assimilating the observations in ocean-atmosphere models, to predict its evolution, over several month. Many studies are underway to assess climate predictability on timescales from months to years, taking advantage of large modes of climate variability and ocean circulation. This involves, for example, replaying recent evolutions, initializing climate models (ocean-atmosphere) with different starting states and trajectories, then comparing their performance with observed evolutions. There is such predictability in many regions, including around the North Atlantic Ocean.


The raw data is imperfect, the models are not perfect, the calculation methods can be improved. All of this can improve. International cooperation plays a major role (see the CLIVAR program) in these areas even Phone Number List if it can be fragile… What is this fragility? We are dependent on national policies. For example, one of the Australian public bodies, the CSIRO , recently decided to massively reduce its research effort in climate sciences (atmospheric and oceanographic observations, modelling) by arguing that "the scientific aspect is established" and by planning recruitments around adaptation to climate change, which shows a complete lack of knowledge of the scientific issues.

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Particularly critical for the global climate. And, on certain points, we do not have enough data: on the thickness of the snow in certain areas of Siberia, on fine-scale observations in Africa, in areas of nomadic populations or mountain areas. Timescales characteristic of “Earth system” feedbacks (Rohlfing, et al., 2012). Author provided The long term: climate change What can be said about more distant periods? It is possible to precisely follow the evolution of key climate indicators such as the average temperature on the surface of the Earth. Research on climate change has been coordinated at the international level for 150 years, much less before. We can say that the atmospheric composition has changed a lot recently. The level of CO 2 in the atmosphere increased from 280 to 400 parts per million between 1750 and today. We are certain that this increase is due to human activities (fossil fuel combustion and deforestation), and the current level greatly exceeds the range of variations during the glaciations of the last 800,000 years, preserved in the ice of Antarctica.
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